FEWtures Interactive Products

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Model

Click the Setup button then Go to run the model.

SG = Grain Sorghum

FEWture Farms

FEWture Farms is an interactive tool for farmers, students, and others. It is designed to provide insight into the productivity and economics of a farm with possible renewable energy generation capacity. FEWture Farms integrates agriculture, water, energy, and economic components. It calculates farm income, and provides a visualization of the system and graphs of results. Ammonia production locally on the farm is evaluated and relevant information is provided in a linked Excel file.

Hopefully, FEWtures Farms will help stakeholders in the agricultural, energy, and water communities identify economic opportunities for Small Town and Rural (STAR) agricultural communities through local renewable energy resources. This will hopefully encourage a resilient Food, Energy, and Water future. As an educational tool, FEWture Farms allows students and teachers to peek into the systems that put water in their glasses, food on their table, and power in their light bulbs.

Introduction

The conditions and practices simulated are for the period 2008 to as late as 2097. The model is developed using data from 2008 to 2017, which is referred to as the “historical” period of time. Results from 2018 to 2097 are estimated projections that are likely to correctly identify trends and unlikely to be precisely accurate. The projections can be thought of as accurately identifying future conditions that will need to be faced by farmers.

FEWture Farms can be used to address a question like

“What is an educated guess as to what would happen if historical agricultural practices, technologies, and economics remain similar going forward given water resource limitations, anticipated (as of 2018) changes in climate, and world agro-economic conditions?”

An alternatively, the question might be posed as follows.

“What pressures must farmers address to maintain financially viable operations going forward given water resource limitations, anticipated (as of 2018) changes in climate, and world agro-economic conditions?”


The simulation does not account for inflation. Prices need to be considered in the same way we consider the prices in games such as Monopoly. Some of the proportions are likely to remain similar and the simulations can provide some good experiences that inform the user about system dynamics despite not being predictive in a specific sense.

These rest of these notes are organized with the following headings. Users can click the items in this list to go to the related section.

1. Notes for Users
1a. Farmers
1b. Teachers and Students
1c. Everyone
2. More about the Test Case Simulated
3. FEWture Farms – Some Basics
3a. TechnoEconomic Structure
3b. Repeat a Simulation
3c. Simulation of Changing Conditions Over Time
4. Data
4a. User Controlled Input Data
4b. “Hard Coded” Input data
4c. Unit Conversions
5. Model Function
5a. Agriculture
5b. Energy
5c. Water
5d. Economics
5e. Fertilizer - Ammonia Costs and an Alternative
6. Selected Topics for Running FEWture Farms
6a. Start the Simulation
6b. Export Data
6c. Filenames for Result Graphs
7. Model version
8. References

1. Notes for Users

This section briefly notes some ways FEWture Farms could be useful to different audiences. FEWture Farms was developed by a group of people with expertise in each of the component fields – food, energy, water, economics, and ammonia (a main component of the fertilizer mix) -- and can thus be used by people with expertise in a few or even none of these fields to learn something about these multicomponent systems.

FEWtures Farms is best thought of as a tool to introduce users to novel approaches. It is not a tool to plan a proposed endeavor in detail. Users are encouraged to seek advice from specialists before making major decisions about ways forward.

FEWture Farms is presented using a test case based on data from 2008 to 2017 from Garden City, Kansas, USA. Crop prices and expenses were such that in many cases farming was a difficult endeavor in which to make money. With FEWture Farms, users can run scenarios to identify circumstances in which farmers can earn money from agricultural and energy production in the face of projected (to as late as 2097) water resource limitations, anticipated (as of 2021) changes in climate, and world agro-economic conditions.

1a. Farmers

The representation of farming concerns in FEWture Farms will likely seem too simple for most farmers. Hopefully there is enough realism in the agricultural component that the interplay with the water, energy, and economic components provide some insight into how future water constraints and energy opportunities might play a role in the future of a given farm or cooperative farm venture.

1b. Teachers and Students

FEWture Farms can be the basis of class exercises to help students understand the dynamics behind food on the table, water emerging from a faucet into a sink or bathtub, and electricity that seems to magically appear at any time of the day or night when a light switch is turned on. It can provide logistical and economic understanding of the energy, water, and agricultural infrastructure on the landscape to open the world up to students and, sometimes, their teachers.

1c. Everyone

Food, Energy, water (FEW) systems are what we and our society depend on for our existence. Better understanding of these systems makes people better citizens and neighbors.

2. More About the Test Case Simulated

It would be wonderful someday to have a tool like FEWture Farms that could automatically collect data for a user-chosen location and provide site specific results. That is not available in this version of FEWture Farms. For the example provided, one location was chosen, relevant data collected, and a simulation was constructed to create an interactive platform. This example forms a foundation for a program applicable to user chosen locations in that it suggests what kinds of data would need to be readily available for such applications, and provides program structure and some programming specifics likely to be useful in such a development.

The test case chosen includes a number of circumstances of broad interest. These include diminishing water supply, local renewable energy opportunities, and an agricultural system that dominates world markets for some crops and does not for other crops. The test case includes one example of government support -- crop insurance that is active when crop productivity drops off due to loss of irrigation water supply.

The test case represents the area around Garden City in Finney County, Kansas, USA. It is in the southern High Plains aquifer (HPA), where groundwater levels decreased dramatically between the 1960s and the 2020s, due mostly to very large-scale water pumping to irrigate crops. The water level declines have meant that in many areas irrigation has become impractical and only dryland farming is now possible (see first figure below). As shown in the figure, more land is expected to convert to dryland farming going forward. Farmers are diversifying their income sources as groundwater supplies are depleted and agricultural production is negatively impacted.

Fortunately, Kansas is well positioned in the nation’s wind belt and local farmers have access to a robust renewable energy source (Anderson et al., 2012). Economically, Kansas is the second leading state in wind energy production, with almost 50% of the electricity sold in the state being met by wind in 2022 (https://windexchange.energy.gov/states/ks).

The data used for the text case is documented extensively in Phetheet (2021a, Appendices A, B, C, and D). The figures from this section and related updated figures are available from the Kansas Geological Survey (KGS) and National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL).

Map showing the estimated usable lifetime of the High Plains Aquifer in Kansas

Map showing the average wind speed at 80m in the continential United States

3. FEWture Farms – Some Basics

FEWture Farms is an extension of FEWCalc, the Food-Energy-Water Calculator assembled by Jirapat (Mos) Phetheet, a Master’s student who worked with Professor Mary C. Hill in the Department of Geology, University of Kansas. FEWCalc is documented and demonstrated in Phetheet et al. (2021a,b).

3a. TechnoEconomic Structure

The FEWture Farms calculations are divided into two parts.

3b. Repeat a Simulation

If the Export button is clicked, the data for the current simulation is saved in a file called “netlogo-world-file.csv”, called the World File in this document. This file can be used to repeat that simulation in either Netlogo web or the Netlogo desktop application by first loading the model file and then from the file dropdown menu selecting import > import world and selecting the downloaded World File.

The same filename is used for each save. To avoid overwriting files for each simulation, rename the files as you save them.

3c. Simulation of Changing Conditions Over Time

If things change going forward (as they surely will) FEWture Farms can be used to represent known or hypothesized changes as follows. To investigate effects of postulated changes, users can run one year at a time using the button Go Once at the top near the Go button. User-defined values can be changed after some number of years and the user can click the Go Once button to continue year by year. Alternatively, at any point the Go button can be clicked to proceed to the end of the defined time period. The export button preserves settings as they are at the end of a simulation. The World File will not include previous changes. Thus, FEWture Farms model runs with changing year-to-year conditions cannot be repeated using the method as defined here.

4. Data

The data used in this program is hard coded, user controlled, or used to convert units. These data types are described in the following sections. For additional information, see Phetheet (2021a,b)

4a. User Controlled Input Data

FEWture Farms allows users to specify parameters for their own simulation in the NetLogo interface. It is designed to let users control those numbers easily by using boxes, sliders, and dropdown menus. These are located on the left of the model page on the FEWture Farms web site. The parameter names are mostly self-explanatory. Additional information is described in the list below.

4b. “Hard Coded” Input data

Some input data in this model is “hard-coded,” meaning that the user cannot change these input values. These values correspond to eight input files in comma-separated values (.csv) format available for reference on the FEWture_Farms Github repository in the “netlogo” folder. The desktop app, also available on the FEWture_Farms Github repository, can run these and user-created custom input files. Details can be found in the model notes associated with that file. The adapted model file, which is compatible with Netlogo Web, is available in that repository within the “NetlogoWeb” folder.

Some hard-coded Input values (e.g., projected precipitation and crop prices for the Future_Process options Repeat Historical, Dryer and Wetter) were taken from historical data between 2008 and 2017. Others were calculated from DSSAT (e.g., yield and irrigation) using the same dataset (numbered 1-4 as shown below) and global climate models (GCMs) (5-8 below). The input files relate to the four major crop types in Kansas: corn, wheat, soybean, and milo (grain sorghum).


The file columns headers are not well-defined. Here is a detailed explanation of those values.
The next columns list precipitation, crop yield and irrigation for RCP8.5 and 4.5.